By Betonline.com

MLB Betting — Phillies vs Dodgers NLCS Preview

If that NFL betting line you thought was a lock hurt you last week, maybe it’s time to step away from the gridiron for a few days and focus on October baseball. The National League Championship Series starts Thursday and features a rematch of last year’s NLCS between the Phillies and Dodgers. Time to put our betting software to work and calculate our pick.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Best-of-seven series Game 1 is Thursday, October 15, 8:07 p.m. ET
Series sportsbook prices: Phillies +105, Dodgers -125

The Phillies will win if…

They ride their superior depth to victory. The Phillies boasted four of the NL’s top 15 home-run hitters this season; Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, Raul Ibanez and Chase Utley can all go off at any time, as Howard and Werth in particular showed against the Rockies in the NLDS. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino provide decent pop and great speed atop the lineup, meaning the bases are rarely empty when the big boppers come to the dish.

Pitching-wise, the Phillies arguably have baseball’s deepest rotation, featuring Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Pedro Martinez (if needed). In a seven-game series as opposed to the best-of-five NLDS, the advantage of a deep rotation become more pronounced. Whereas the Phillies can lean on Happ, a Rookie of the Year contender, in a pinch, the Dodgers will have to cross their fingers with Jon Garland or dust off the struggling Chad Billingsley in the same situation.

The Dodgers will win if…

Their starting pitchers continue to overachieve. Vicente Padilla has been a revelation since joining the Dodgers, still yet to lose a game. If he really is “back,” the Dodgers’ aren’t in horrible shape pitching-wise. You could argue that the Dodgers are more “built for the playoffs” than the Phillies, as the Dodgers have more team speed, better defense, amazing clutch hitting led by Andre Ethier and Manny Ramirez, and the majors’ best bullpen.

Outlook

The Dodgers’ team makeup worked well in a best-of-five series, but depth should prevail in a seven-gamer. Pick the Phillies to outlast the Dodgers.

MLB pick: Dodgers +105

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