by Matt Severance for Bodog

Green Bay Packers’ 2009 projection: 7-9

At least the Packers had a full offseason without all that Brett Favre nonsense. But will that help better last year’s 6-10 record? Probably not. Certainly it’s hard to blame Aaron Rodgers for that 2008 disappointment. In his first season as a starter, Rodgers ranked sixth overall in QB rating and was one of six quarterbacks to throw for more than 4,000 yards and 26 touchdowns. So did Green Bay make the right move in pushing Favre aside? Statistically yes, but Rodgers was 0-for-7 last year when the Packer offense had the ball trailing or tied with less than five minutes remaining and the chance to win the game. Green Bay finished 0-7 in games decided by four points or fewer.

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The main question on offense is whether Ryan Grant, a revelation in 2007, can stay healthy and productive in 2008. Sure, he had 1,203 yards last year, but only four touchdowns and a yards-per-carry average under 4.0. Green Bay’s rushing attack was 17th overall last year. Receivers Greg Jennings and Donald Driver remain one of the most productive duos in the league.

It’s on defense where Green Bay will look a lot different. That unit, not so much Rodgers, has to take the blame for a lot of those last-minute losses, and it ranked just 26th against the run. Packers management certainly thought a change was needed, so a majority of the defensive staff was let go. New defensive coordinator Dom Capers is installing the 3-4 defense. But how long will it take the returning players to adjust to that? No. 9 overall pick B.J. Raji should be a nice fit in the new scheme, however.

Here is the Packers’ 2009 schedule, and we’ll break it down after:
Sept. 13 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:20 p.m.
Sept. 20 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Sept. 27 at St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m.
Oct. 5 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 p.m.
Week 5: Bye
Oct. 18 vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Oct. 25 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Nov. 1 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Nov. 8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 15 vs. Dallas Cowboys, 4:15 p.m.
Nov. 22 vs. San Francisco 49ers, 1 p.m.
Nov. 26 at Detroit Lions, 12:30 p.m.
Dec. 7 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 8:30 p.m.
Dec. 13 at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Dec. 20 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 1 p.m.
Dec. 27 vs. Seattle Seahawks, 1 p.m.
Jan. 3 at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 30th (opponents combined to go 109-146-1, .428, in 2008)
Projected record: 7-9
Bodog over/under total: 8 1/2
Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 26/1

That opener with Chicago will be the first of many Jay Cutler-Rodgers duels. The two friends already have been trading text messages. But I like a Bears upset, as Chicago is 4-2 against Green Bay in Coach Mike McCarthy’s three seasons, although the game at Lambeau was a Packer rout last year. Green Bay certainly will be favored in the final two games of the opening month and will finish it 2-1.

In October, look for that record to flip to 1-2, with a lock win at home against Detroit. Packer backers, I’m sure, will argue for a win at Cleveland, but the Dawg Pound is never an easy place to play. By the way, it’s Green Bay’s first visit to Cleveland since 1995.

In November, Green Bay will win each home game, which is saying something against Super Bowl contenders Minnesota and Dallas. The Cowboys have only won once ever at Lambeau, although that was last year. And Tony Romo is 2-0 against Green Bay … nope, I’m sticking with a Green Bay upset. Yes, I do believe the Packers fall to the Lions on Thanksgiving. Try not to laugh, but Detroit is 11-6-1 against Green Bay on Thanksgiving, and the Lions last win on the holiday came against Green Bay in 2003. Come on, Detroit isn’t going to go winless at home again! The Pack will go 0-2 on the road that month – they don’t like playing in Tampa, winning just one in their last seven attempts there.

At 6-5 to start December, the Pack should be in the wild-card hunt, but I forecast a 1-4 finish for a 7-9 record. Green Bay certainly will be favored to beat Seattle and should, but it could be an underdog in all those other games (maybe not Baltimore). Playing the two Super Bowl teams from last year on the road within two weeks is a cruel twist in the schedule.

Would a second straight losing season post-Favre cost McCarthy and/or GM Ted Thompson their job? It just might.

Do you like the Green Bay Packers’ odds to win the XLIV Super Bowl? Then bet on them.

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